- Averaged 12.12 per cent from 1996 -2016
- Expected to rise to 14.20 per cent by the end of Q2 in June
Consumer prices in Nigeria surged 13.7 per cent year-on year in April 2016, compared to a 12.8 per cent jump in the previous month. The inflation rate accelerated for the third straight month, reaching the highest since August of 2010, boosted by higher costs of food, electricity (as effects of higher tariffs assigned in February) and transport. Annual core inflation rate rose to 13.4 per cent and month-on month, consumer prices went up 1.61 per cent compared to a 2.2 per cent increase in March. Inflation rate in Nigeria averaged 12.12 per cent from 1996 until 2016, reaching an all time high of 47.56 per cent in January of 1996 and a record low of -2.49 per cent in January of 2000.
Consumer Price Index
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the country also measures the change over time in prices of 740 goods consumed for day-to-day living.
The index weights are based on expenditures of both urban and rural households in the 36 States. The most important categories in the CPI are food and non-alcoholic beverages (51.8 per cent of total weight); housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuel (16.7 per cent) and clothing and footwear (7.7 per cent). Transports account for 6.5 per cent of total index and furnishings and household equipment maintenance stand at 5 per cent. Education represents 3.9 per cent of total weight, health 3 per cent, miscellaneous goods and services 1.7 per cent and restaurants and hotels 1.2 per cent. Alcoholic beverages, tobacco and kola, account for 1.1 per cent of total index. Communications for 0.7 per cent and recreation and culture for the remaining 0.7 per cent.
Nigeria inflation rate jumps to nearly 6-Year high
According to National Bureau of Statistics, Year-on-year, food prices rose 13.2 per cent (from 12.7 per cent in March), housing, water, electricity and gas increased 18.98 per cent (from 15.9 per cent). Additional upward pressure came from clothing and footwear (12.7 per cent from 12.0 per cent); transport (14 per cent from 13.2 per cent); furnishings and household equipment (9.6 per cent from 9.1 per cent); education (13.9 per cent from 12.9 per cent); health (9 per cent from 8.9 per cent); miscellaneous goods and services (10.6 per cent from 10.3 per cent) and alcoholic beverages, tobacco and cola (11.1 per cent from 10.9 per cent). Prices of restaurants and hotels went up by 8.5 per cent from an 8.7 per cent rise in the previous month. Annual core inflation rate rose to 13.4 per cent from 12.2 per cent in the previous month.
On a monthly basis, consumer prices went up 1.61 per cent compared to a 2.2 per cent increase in March, mostly due to rise in cost of food (+1.3 per cent); housing, water, electricity and gas (+3.3 per cent) and clothing and footwear both (+1.2 per cent). On May 11, 2016, the government cut fuel subsidy and hiked gasoline price by 67 per cent (from
N87 to N145 a litre). The move is expected to raise the inflation further in upcoming months.
Nigeria inflation rate forecast 2016-2020
According to Trading Economics’ global macro and analysts expectations, inflation rate in Nigeria is expected to be 14.20 per cent by the end of this quarter. Estimating, infl ation rate in Nigeria to stand at 12.10 per cent in 12 months. In the long term, the Nigeria Inflation rate is projected to trend around 10.60 per cent in 2020, according to Trading Economics econometric models.
| Forecast | Actual | Q2/16 | Q3/16 | Q4/16 | Q1/17 | 2020 | Unit |
| Inflation Rate | 13.7 | 14.2 | 14 | 11.9 | 12.1 | 10.6 | percent |
